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18 марта 2010, 10:57

INTRODUCTION 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 China’s Energy Profile, Electricity Consumption and Carbon Emissions 2 PV Benefits and China’s PV Advantage 2 Global Status of PV Installations 3 Global Status of PV Production and State of China’s PV Industry 3 Government Support for PV 4 Global Benchmark: The German Feed-in Tariff 4 PV Technology, Costs and Competitiveness 5 Call for Accelerated Adoption of PV 5 Proposed China PV Policy Roadmap 5 Policy Vision Statement 5 Key Policy Recommendations 5 About the Authors 6 Members of the China PV Advisory Committee 6 What’s Next 6 Comments and Feedback 6 PV GROUP WHITE PAPER – CHINA’S SOLAR FUTURE MAY 2009 China’s Solar Future A Preliminary Report on a Recommended China PV Policy Roadmap INTRODUCTION China, as the world’s fastest growing developing country, has fuelled a massive demand for energy. Chinese leaders, from the central government to regional levels, are addressing China’s rising energy needs and encouraging the development of renewable energy sources. However, less focus has been placed on PV. In 2008, SEMI joined forces with leaders from China’s PV companies and academia and formed the China PV Advisory Committee. The Committee initiated a PV industry advocacy program to collectively address issues facing China’s PV industry and to petition for more government support in the areas of legislation, policy, and financial support, with the aim of expanding the industry and opening up a domestic market for PV. As an important part of the industry advocacy initiative, the Committee drafted a China PV Policy Roadmap. The Roadmap attempts to present an overview of China’s energy profile, electricity consumption, growing need for energy, the benefits of PV, global status of PV, and the state of China’s PV industry. The Roadmap also attempts to provide an in-depth analysis of the cost of crystalline silicon based PV systems and the cost of PV electricity. It delineates a PV installation roadmap with clear annual targets up to year 2020. The Roadmap also looks at different government incentive models and provides detailed government spending levels for each model. Finally, the Roadmap analyzes China’s current PV policies and offers policy recommendations. The goals presented in the Roadmap are challenging, both for the Chinese government and for the China PV industry. The SEMI China PV Committee hopes that this Roadmap will serve as a reference document for the Chinese government when it comes to setting new national targets and new policies for PV installation. The Committee also hopes that the Roadmap will kindle a commitment from China’s PV industry to drive down the cost of PV through continuous technological innovation and sustainable business practices. PV GROUP WHITE PAPER – CHINA’S SOLAR FUTURE 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHINA’S ENERGY PROFILE, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSION Coal consumption plays a central role in China’s economy. Seventy percent of China’s energy consumption comes from coal, much higher than the global average. Coal burning creates a negative impact on China’s environment and generates massive amounts of carbon dioxide. The World Bank estimates that by 2020, the external costs from coal usage will reach 13% of China’s GDP. In the 2008 edition of the International Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration predicts that in 2030, China will generate more than half of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions from coal use. At the same time, as the world’s largest developing country, China’s energy demand has been increasing steadily. The Energy Information Administration also predicts that China’s net electricity consumption will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of 4.8%. By 2030, China will consume 20% of world total electricity output. On the supply side, it is estimated that in 2010, after accounting for coal, hydro, and nuclear, there would be a 6.4% shortage in electricity supply. The shortage will grow to 10.7% in 2020. (Figure 1) The gap between electricity supply and demand will have to be filled by renewable energy. PV powered systems will play a critical role. Coal, 68. 4% Gap, 6. 4% Hydr o, 23. 1% Nucl ear, 2. 1% Gap, 10. 7% Coal, 62. 3% Hydr o, 23. 2% Nucl ear, 3. 8% Figure 1 – 2010 vs. 2020 Energy Shortage Scenarios Recognizing the global opportunities in PV products and systems, China has been building a massive PV industry representing all facets of the supply chain, from polysilicon feedstock, ingots and wafers to cells and modules. In 2007, China took the world’s number one spot in solar cell manufacturing with a total production of over 1GW. In 2008, China manufactured 2GW of solar cells, representing 30% of the global total production, to secure a leading position. Virtually all of this PV production has been exported. In 2008, China installed 40 MW of PV domestically—only 0.7% of the global total. According to China’s 11th Five-Year Plan, China will reach only 17% of the world average level of PV-generated power by 2010, and only 6% of the world average by 2020. This report recommends an accelerated adoption of PV power in China to reach global average level of PV power generation by 2014. PV BENEFITS AND CHINA’S PV ADVANTAGE PV offers tremendous environmental benefits. While conventional energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil will eventually run out and produce global warming gases, the sun’s energy is free and limitless. Every 1 MW PV system in China can replace 500 tons of coal and reduce more than 900 tons of carbon dioxide emission annually. The energy payback time is about 2 years for a system based on crystalline silicon technology in most parts of China. For a thin film system, the energy payback time is even shorter. PV offers enormous economic and social benefits. In order to ensure national energy security, China needs to develop a balanced energy structure and reduce its heavy reliance on coal. PV will play an important role in this regard. In many places around the world, PV has become a new growth area to stimulate economic development and job creation. China still has many remote areas that are not targeted for grid connection. PV can bring electricity to these areas, relieving poverty and regional imbalances. Even though the cost of PV is still higher than conventional, non-renewable energy sources, in the near future the costs of PV will come down to where no financial incentives are needed. China has some unique advantages for developing PV. More than half of China’s land is located in rich to very rich solar resource areas and offers tremendous opportunity for PV power generation. China has already become the world’s leader in PV manufacturing and holds a huge yet-to-be-opened domestic market for PV. PV GROUP WHITE PAPER – CHINA’S SOLAR FUTURE 3 GLOBAL STATUS OF PV INSTALLATIONS Driven by favorable government policies, global PV installation has increased dramatically in recent years, growing at 45% CAGR from year 2000 to 2008. In 2008 alone, 5.5GW of PV was installed globally, pushing the cumulative installation close to 15GW. However, China has installed only 40MW of PV in 2008, representing only 0.7% of the global total. China’s cumulative installation is 140MW, only about 1% of the global total. Off-grid rural electrification represents the majority of China’s installed PV systems. Application Cumulative Installation (MW) % of Total Rural Electrification 48 34.3% Communication and Industrial 35 25.0% Goods and Services 30 21.4% Grid Connected BIPV 26 18.6% Grid Connected Large Scale PV Power Plant 1 0.7% Total 140 100% GLOBAL STATUS OF PV PRODUCTION AND STATE OF CHINA’S PV INDUSTRY To meet the dramatically increasing demand for PV, worldwide PV production has experienced rapid growth. Since 2004, China has moved towards a huge solar production ramp on all fronts of the domestic supply chain, from polysilicon feedstock, ingots and wafers to cells and modules. In 2007, China took the world’s number one spot in solar cell manufacturing with a total production of over 1GW. In 2008, China manufactured 2GW of solar cells, representing 30% of the global total production, to secure its leading position. Among the top 25 global PV producers, eight are Chinese companies. Since 2005, more than 10 Chinese solar companies succeeded in some highly prominent initial public offerings in overseas exchanges. Capacity Production Capacity Production Polysilicon (Ton) 4,550 1,100 20,000 4,500 Ingot/Wafer (Ton) 20,000 11,800 30,000 13,000 Solar Cells (MW) 2,000 1,088 4,000 2,000 Modules (Including Thin Film) (MW) 3,000 1,753 5,000 3,000 2007 2008 After a few years of rapid growth, China’s PV industry is now facing tough challenges. Some fundamental problems that were concealed during the boom times have become prominent. The first challenge is the major imbalance between production and consumption—98% of China’s PV products are shipped to overseas markets. Heavy reliance on foreign markets increases the vulnerability of China’s PV industry, as evidenced by recent industry decline due to reduced overseas demand. Chinese companies are also vulnerable to changes in foreign currency exchange rates and incentive policies of other countries. China’s lack of PV demand also threatens government solar incentives in other countries. Policy makers in Europe, US and elsewhere may view China as the primary beneficiary of domestic economic policies that encourage PV demand, while China itself is not contributing to global fossil fuel reduction and a reduced carbon footprint. The second challenge is an imbalance in the domestic industry supply chain. Most silicon material needs to be imported. Most Chinese companies do not have large-scale production and lack world-class production technology in high purity silicon. The third challenge facing China’s PV industry is that many companies rely on imported technology and equipment and few companies invest sufficient funds in R&D. PV GROUP WHITE PAPER – CHINA’S SOLAR FUTURE 4 GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR PV The electricity generation costs for PV systems are currently higher than conventional electricity generation. Government support is needed to further develop a strong PV industry and encourage the PV market in China. Government incentives not only spur China’s domestic market for PV, but also expedite the cost reduction of PV electricity, and eventually will drive PV to market driven rather than government driven. There are two commonly used government financial incentive mechanisms for PV—Direct Investment (one-time upfront subsidy or as a tax credit) and a Feed-in Tariff. For the Direct Investment Model, three stages are expected. • Stage I – government investment needed to encourage private investment in PV system with a reasonable ROI. • Stage II – with PV electricity below one RMB per kWh, decreasing amount of government investment will be needed to allow a good ROI for private investment in PV systems and a good amount of PV installation. • Stage III – with PV electricity below the cost of conventional generation, investment in PV will become an attractive investment option; PV will become market driven, instead of government driven. For the Feed-in Tariff Model, two stages are expected. • Stage I – as the cost of PV continues to fall and the cost of conventional generation continues to increase, the feed-in tariff needed for PV will decrease dramatically. • Stage II – when grid-parity is achieved, PV generation will cost less than conventional generation and no more subsidies will be needed. The Chinese government can drive China's renewable energy through government political power and financial backing and therefore a western economic framework for analyzing the energy industry and companies may not apply in China. China, however, should learn from international best practices and develop a government support system that best fits its unique situation. As an example of a global benchmark for driving PV energy adoption, here we present a brief description of the German Feed-in Tariff System. GLOBAL BENCHMARK: THE GERMAN FEED-IN TARIFF SYSTEM The up-front costs for solar electricity systems have been recognized as a significant barrier to wider market penetration. Investment subsidies have been implemented in many countries with uneven results. The most successful market incentive program for solar power has been the feed-in tariff, implemented by Germany. It is widely regarded as principal reason for Germany’s leadership in solar power generation and is a valuable model for policy-makers worldwide. In Germany in 2008, the utilities pay a tariff of between €0.35/kWh and €0.47/kWh (depending on the size and type of system) for solar electricity from newly-installed PV arrays1. The utilities are authorized to pass on this extra cost, spread equally, to all electricity consumers through their electricity bill. This means that the feed-in program works through market incentives independent of government budgets and subsidies. In Germany, the monthly extra costs per household due to the tariff for solar electricity were €1.25 in 2008. The result is also that every electricity consumer contributes to the restructuring of the national electricity supply network. In addition, a feed-in tariff guaranteed by law over a sufficient period of time has proven to be an excellent support for private financing. While unfamiliar at first, currently the financing of PV systems via bank loans in Germany are no longer an unusual and time-consuming activity. Source: Solar Generation V, EPIA and Greenpeace To encourage cost reduction and the eventual elimination of tariffs, the feed-in tariff in Germany is reduced each year by 5% (from 2009 the degression rate will be increased to 8 -10 %), but only for newly-installed PV systems. Once a PV system is connected to the grid, the tariff remains constant over the complete period of 20 years. This approach allows solar customers to easily calculate the return on investment in their PV system, while ensuring the industry to continuously reduce costs to main the market. PV GROUP WHITE PAPER – CHINA’S SOLAR FUTURE 5 PV TECHNOLOGY, COSTS AND COMPETITIVENESS Based on the cost analysis of crystalline silicon PV technology and a set of assumptions including cost of silicon materials, cost of manufacturing process, manufacturing scales, future technology and others, it is predicted that the cost of PV electricity for a c-Si based system in the rich solar resource area will reach one RMB per kWh in 2012, and grid parity is expected somewhere around 2015 and 2016. CALL FOR ACCELERATED PV ADOPTION The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its Moderate Scenario, that by 2010, 0.1% of global total electricity will come from PV and 1.2% by 2020. According to China’s 11th Five-Year Plan, China will reach only 17% of the world average level by 2010 and only 6% of the world average by 2020. The China PV Policy Roadmap calls for an accelerated adoption of PV in order to reach global average level by 2014. - 5, 000 10, 000 15, 000 20, 000 25, 000 30, 000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 China's Current National Target (MW) Proposed Cumulative Installation (MW) Cumulative Installation Needed to Achieve Global Average Level (MW) PROPOSED CHINA PV POLICY ROADMAP By 2020, China’s accumulated PV installation would reach more than 28GW, to make 1.2% of total electricity consumption and result in the reduction of 42 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Nearly 3 million people would be employed in China’s PV industry and the value of output could reach 3,386 billion RMB. POLICY VISION STATEMENT Government plays a vital role in developing a sustainable PV industry and a prosperous PV market in China. KEY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS • Establish clear targets for PV installation. Adjust current national targets and achieve global average level by year 2014. o Adjust 2010 target from 300MW to 745MW o Adjust 2020 target from 1.8GW to 28GW • Enact clear and easy-to-administer PV incentive policies that are suitable for China’s unique situations, using both market and legal mechanisms to encourage private investment in PV. Help PV transition from government driven to market driven. • While maintaining current rural electrification effort, priority should be given to grid-connected large scale power plant and building integrated systems. • Immediately implement government direct investment subsidy model at central and local levels. • At the same time effectively implement feed-in tariff programs stipulated in the Renewable Energy Law. • Support China PV industry through favorable policies. • Invest in R&D to strengthen China PV industry’s technological competitiveness. Boost research and development that will make PV systems less expensive, more efficient, and highly reliable. • Promote education in PV technology along the entire PV value chain in order to create a skilled workforce. • Establish industry standards and certification systems. • Educate the public about PV and instill the idea of green energy and green lifestyle. PV GROUP WHITE PAPER – CHINA’S SOLAR FUTURE 6 ABOUT THE AUTHORS This report was prepared by the China PV Advisory Committee of the SEMI PV Group. The PV Group is a special interest group of SEMI that serves the photovoltaic supply chain represented by companies that provide the cells, modules, equipment, and materials to the global solar energy industry. The PV Group's mission is to advance continuous manufacturing cost reductions and sustainable business practices through international standards development, events, public policy advocacy, environmental, health and safety (EHS) support, market intelligence, and other services. WHAT’S NEXT The SEMI China PV Committee is dedicated to the advancement of China’s PV industry and PV market. The Committee is committed to continuing its industry advocacy effort, bringing together the industry and the government to achieve the grand goals highlighted in this Roadmap. COMMENTS AND FEEDBACK SEMI China welcomes comments, feedbacks and suggestions about any aspect of this report. Please send them to: msong@semi.org, or to SEMI PV Group at grid@semi.org For more information, visit: www.pvgroup.org. MEMBERS OF THE CHINA PV ADVISORY COMMITTEE • Andy Tuan, Air Products • Kevin Sun, Applied Materials • Yuelong Huang, Baoding Tianwei Solarfilms • Peng Fang, Best Solar • Zhibin Xiao, CETC 18th Institute • Junchao Wang, CETC 48th Institute • Ben Ighani, Ch2MHILL • Jianhua Zhao, China Sunergy • Liyou Yang, Chint Solar • Bob Zhou, CSI • Sicheng Wang, Energy Research Institute, NDRC • Wenjing Wang, Institute of Electrical Engineering, CAS • Rongqiang Cui, Jiao Tong University • Bingyan Ren, Jinglong Group • Yuepeng Wan, LDK Solar • Peter Pauli, Meyer Burger • Haiyan Sun, Oerlikon • Richard For, REC Silicon • Hengst Thomas, Roth & Rau • Guoming Zhang, Seven Star Electronics • Zhumin Liu, Solar Energy Research Center, Yunnan Normal University • Hongbang Li, Solargiga • Hui Shen, Sun Yat-Sen University • Guangchun Zhang, Suntech Power • Steven Zhu, Trina Solar • Setsuo Iwashita, Ulvac • Shaozhang Chen, Xinguang Silicon • Linsheng Ren, Xinjiang SunOasis • Deren Yang, Zhejiang University